EDUCATED BETS
Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 — October 10, 2026
Final: Bayer Leverkusen 4 — FSV Mainz 05 3
Our model priced Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 against the market, but no call on this game cleared its publishing bar, so there is nothing to grade here. Every call it does publish is logged before the game starts and graded in public.
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How the model works
Educated Bets prices every game and player prop with a statistical model — recency-weighted player form, matchup, pace, park and rest — then calibrates each probability to the league's real historical hit rate. Every pick is logged before the game starts and graded automatically against the final box score, so wins and losses both stay on the public record.
Public track record: across 6,166 graded picks the model's win rate is 62.4%. That figure counts every graded pick, wins and losses, with no survivorship filtering — including calls the model later revised.
Model analysis for informational and entertainment purposes only — not financial or betting advice. 21+ (18+ where lawful). If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Unlock the full model board — freeNo card required. Every pick logged before tip-off and graded in public.